Deeper drought may mean record low

By Stacy Shelton, Mike Morris

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Thursday, October 30, 2008

If metro Atlanta’s drought deepens this winter, Lake Lanier could reach a new record low in January and head into the late spring at its lowest level ever for that time of year, when water use intensifies.

That’s the worst-case scenario presented in a six-month projection released Wednesday by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The corps, which operates Buford Dam at Lanier and four other dams downstream on the Chattahoochee River, considered four possibilities ranging from extreme dry conditions to normal rainfall.

Under the best case considered by the corps —- a return to normal rain —- Lanier could rise as much as 10 feet above this spring’s level, but it would not completely refill. The corps’ projection shows Lanier rising to about 1,067.5 feet above sea level by May 1, or 3 to 4 feet below full.

The projections do not factor into Georgia’s request to reduce the amount of water released from Lanier to feed the Chattahoochee River. If the state’s request is granted, the lake could rise another foot.

The National Weather Service’s forecast is mixed for the next four months, with near-normal rainfall expected in November, but below-normal precipitation December through February.

Lanier, metro Atlanta’s primary water source, currently is about 18 feet below full. The water entering the lake from its feeder rivers and streams is less than one-third the normal amount for this time of year.